A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
